Sprint Outlook In An iPhone World

Sprint stock is cheap. It's really cheap. Does that make it a good investment though?

Well, Sprint just got the iPhone. That's huge, but they may have taken a huge gamble in getting it. They overpaid for the iPhone and made the mistake of telling everyone that they made that mistake:

“Friday was tough on the stock, tough on everybody in terms of the way it came across,” Hance said in an interview. “It was a mistake not to disclose the impact of the iPhone -- a mistake we will fix. We will talk about the impact when we talk about the third-quarter earnings."

As a company that has already shown that it has had problems becoming profitable, Sprint took a huge leap to get the iPhone on its network. The cache of having the iPhone on its network might have clouded the judgment of the executive who made this deal. What's worse is that they could not explain the purpose of the deal well to analysts:

Last week the laughter came from analysts at Sprint's investor meeting, where Mr. Hesse and executives laid out an inscrutable and incomplete financial plan that Wall Street's brightest admitted they could not make heads or tails of. Then Sprint dropped the bomb. It may need to go to the capital markets to fund a wireless business that, by now, ought to be spinning off loads of cash. The stock promptly plummeted 26% in an afternoon.

That just screams poor leadership. As an investor, you look at the management of the company and you have to be weary. They've made several poor decisions that has resulted in the continued evaporation of shareholder equity. You shouldn't catch a falling knife.

But is there upside to Sprint? While AT&T and Verizon both have delays on the new iPhone, Sprint has it available:

But Sprint, while it’s sold out of the 16GB model, still has the more expensive versions in stock, and its website says they’ll be delivered on Oct. 14 or 15.

While it suggests that the movement to Sprint for the iPhone has been slower than anticipated, it also means that people will have to go to Sprint if they want the iPhone. Remember, a lot of customers are under contract and don't want to go through the hassle of changing service. Furthermore, Sprint has the benefit of having better service:

The No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier does have its fans – a Consumer Reports survey last year ranked it even with Verizon in terms of overall customer satisfaction. It could be that AT&T and Verizon found more buyers for the expensive versions amid their corporate customer base. Or maybe Sprint’s just off to a slow start.

Sprint, unlike its competitors, offers unlimited data, which might be a huge draw for people who are sick of paying overages. I really think Sprint really needs time with the iPhone. No one should have expected it to have an immediate impact. I think people looked for phones more than service. Now that the playing field is leveling out, we should see a hunt for the best service. Sprint should be able to capitalize on this market shift.

Furthermore, Sprint has announced its plan to implement its 4G LTE network:

At its Oct. 7 meeting, Sprint had indicated its plans to take on additional debt to fund the rollout of their new higher-speed 4G LTE network by mid-2012. It had also earlier announced unlimited data plans for iPhone users.

We believe that if the company is able to lure iPhone users with its uncapped data plans and at the same time increase speeds and reduce costs by using its LTE network, the long-term prospects of the company looks good. However liquidity concerns arising from excessive debt on its balance sheet will continue to be a major deterrent to its business, and should this strategy not pay off, Sprint could be in dire straits.

Liquidity is at a premium in the market, given the ongoing concerns with debt throughout the world. However, Sprint should have some momentum with the iPhone buzz. While analysts are portraying the company negatively at the moment, there is a lot of reason to believe that Sprint will recover. Its services will only get better with the implementation of LTE and it should be able to distance itself from Verizon in that regard. It offers a better package than Verizon and AT&T, and as the consumers begin to realize that, this iPhone gamble will start to pay off for Sprint.

While Sprint may struggle in the short term, there is still plenty of upside as the company navigate to a 4g LTE world.

The Lockout Continues: Does Anyone Miss The NBA?

I don't know how many of you are upset about the NBA lockout, but they decided yesterday to cancel the first two weeks of the season. It's because the players and owners aren't even close to terms:

That happened Monday when league executives and the NBPA failed to make progress — and perhaps took a step back — on reaching a new collective bargaining agreement. The sides are far apart on the split of basketball-related income (BRI) and the system in which that money would be distributed to players, plus issues such as contract length, luxury tax, player raises and the length of the next CBA.

But the bigger question remains whether anyone cares? I love sports, but there are clear problems with the game that has nothing to do with the way the money is distributed. This quibbling over dollars and cents means nothing to me unless the actual product is improved. As far as I know, I don't think anyone has done anything about it.

I will say this, I sympathize with the businesses that rely on the NBA to bring people to their establishments. That lost income is detrimental in an already lean time. It's not chump change:

The San Antonio area gets an estimated $95 million yearly boost from the Spurs' presence, said David Bojanic, a marketing professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio who teaches courses in destination marketing, sport management and event management. But it's difficult to say how the loss of part — or even all — of a season really would impact the community

There's going to be a trickle effect from this. There is less demand for goods and services, so there's going to be less demand for labor and businesses are going to have to make cuts.

That's not good, but is it all bad? It's one less people to go out, spend money on things like booze and other overpriced items. It's less money going to overpriced tickets when that money can go to things like food, new shoes for their kid, new clothes. Some businesses may suffer, but this money that's not being spent has to go somewhere right?

A Change In Tactics

The latest GOP debate on the economy took place in New Hampshire earlier tonight. It displayed a change from the direction of previous debates. Herman Cain played a much larger role. The Pizzaman has seen his poll ratings rise rapidly in the wake of his performance in the previous debate and his victory in the Florida straw poll. His larger role seems to have come at the expense of Texas Governor, Rick Perry, who has fallen from the graces. Perry underwhelmed again and seemed widely ignored by the other candidates. He also made no attempts to take control of the debate or issues, which may or may not have been a bad thing, given his previous mediocre performances.

The key thing about Perry is that he still hasn't fully released his economic plan:

Mr. Perry is set to deliver his first major policy speech of the campaign on Friday in Pittsburgh, on energy and jobs. When pressed for specifics, he said, “I’m not going to lay it out all for you tonight.” Asked about Mr. Romney’s lengthy economic plan, he said, “You know, Mitt’s had six years to be working on a plan. I’ve been in this for about eight weeks.” Asked if he might accept a budget compromise that could involve raising revenue, as President Ronald Reagan did, Mr. Perry suggested that he would not.

The problem with this is that he comes across as unprepared. This was a debate on economics and Perry is withholding his plan for campaign speeches? Please. You're on a national stage in an important primary state, you have to deliver the goods. I have no idea who is running Perry's campaign, but they have failed miserably.

In the meantime, Cain has received the most attention from the other candidates:

Later, when Jon M. Huntsman joked that Mr. Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan — which calls for reducing the individual and corporate income taxes to 9 percent and introducing a 9 percent national sales tax — sounded more like the price of pizza, Mr. Cain shot back that it “didn’t come off a pizza box, no.”

Bachmann also poured it on:

Bachmann said Cain’s plan wasn’t a jobs plan, but a proposal that would give Congress “a pipeline in a sales tax.”

“When you take the 9-9-9 plan and you turn it upside down, I think the devil is in the details,” she said.

Cain is convinced that his simple tax code will spur economic growth, but there are just too many concerns with it. It's also the only thing he has brought to the table thus far in terms of getting this economy going. As I've said in the past, the flat tax won't work because it'll put an immense burden on the poor who can barely make ends meet as things stand now. A flat tax will reduce their purchasing power and they will have to make tougher decisions about their consumption. Broadening the tax base has a similar effect.

Simple can be good, but simple won't necessarily work.

Romney seems to understand that:

“I have had the experience in my life of taking on some tough problems,” Romney said. “And I must admit that simple answers are always very helpful but oftentimes inadequate. And in my view, to get this economy going again, we’re going to have to deal with more than just tax policy and just energy policy, even though both of those are part of my plan.”

His approach seems much more pragmatic and with a stronger expectation of what Washington is going to be like. Cain, Perry, and Bachmann have all portrayed themselves as somewhat of Washington outsiders, but their problem is that they don't know how Washington works. Romney has the experience of working with liberals in Massachusetts and had to work with them to accomplish some of his initiative, which is what it's going to be like in DC. This is not even getting into his private sector experience.

We've already had like 4-5 debates and doesn't appear like a new candidate is going to enter nor does it appear that further debating is going to change the landscape of the primaries. Right now, it's pretty clear who should be the nominee and it isn't even close. In the long term, you have to look at the person who makes the most sense; this time it's Mitt Romney.

We'll Miss You, Steve

I wrote a longer piece, related to his career, when he resigned as the CEO of Apple earlier this year, but I wanted to say something more personal about what Steve Jobs meant to me. I've always had Apple products in my life. My family's first computer was an Apple Macintosh. My first computer was an Apple iMac. I've had a couple iPod, and I currently have a Mac Book. Apple products have been around me for as long as I know.

More recently, Steve Jobs has been an inspiration. I looked up to him. It wasn't just that he brought such great products to the market; it was that he saw the need. He made millions of lives better. He always looked forward. He was the pace setter for the technology sector, and as a CEO. he was the envy of every other company.

There are many people who can run a company. It takes something else to direct and lead a company. Steve Jobs was an innovator, a leader, a visionary. He will be sorely missed and remember by many. It is easy to see why.

Rest in Peace, Steve. The World will miss you.

That Used To Be Us

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Thomas Friedman
www.thedailyshow.com
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Thomas Friedman talks to Jon Stewart about how America has begun to lag behind the way it used to be in terms of the expectations and the standard of living that a normal citizen has. It's a very interesting interview, and I'm sure it's an interesting book.

I thought this was worth sharing because I've talked a lot about the education gap in this country and the need to train people to work in the evolving economy.

Greek Protests

With the Greek debt crisis, the Greek government has been under pressure to make cuts so that the road to recovery is a much more attainable path. They've already been bailed out a couple times by the European Central Bank and cannot afford to be bailed out again. The path that the Greek government has chosen is to make job cuts, and the people have protested:

Flights were grounded, schools shut and government offices closed in Greece's first nationwide walkout in months. Labour leaders call it the start of a campaign to derail emergency austerity steps launched last month by a government that has already imposed two years of tax hikes and wage cuts.

These people have already made sacrifices, but there is definitely a priority of austerity. The Greek government needs to start moving jobs back to the private sector. By employing so many people, they put a heavy burden on their tax base. Now, the people it promised to help are suffering as a result. Yes, it appears the next few years will be lean for Greece, but it will be better for the long run. However, this seems to be heading towards anarchy:

"We want this government out. They deceived us. They promised to tax the rich and help the poor, but they didn't," said Sotiris Pelekanos, 39, an engineer and one of the striking workers gathered in central Athens. "I don't care if we go bankrupt. We are already bankrupt."

The government really has no idea what it's doing:

"The government is panicking and has no strategy," said Thessaloniki port unionist Fani Gourgouri. "These measures are only extending poverty. We'd be willing to shoulder the cost and say 'yes' to austerity if they proceeded with reforms that would create jobs instead of cutting them."

The problem is that Greece has goals it needs to achieve:

The government will aim to achieve a 2012 deficit of 14.65 billion euro ($19.51 billion) or 6.8% of GDP, by combining 2011 and 2012 goals. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos believes this will give Greece a primary surplus next year of 3.2 billion euros ($4.2 billion).

If Greece makes cuts but continues with its over-reliance on government for jobs and other provisions, it will have the same problems in the future. The only way to ensure the future is to make a solid investment in growing the private sector. I don't think they can just make the switch overnight. They can't alienate the people either. The government needs to maintain its credibility, something that's already running thin. Greece has some tough choices to make. The people hare clearly making their voices heard.

Frugal Families: A Sign of a Slow Economy

I keep talking about how hard times are on the business side in terms of jobs and economic growth, but it's also become tough for families to spend on essential goods. The economic slowdown has hurt household incomes through lost jobs or reduce income through inflation. The purchasing power of a household is in a very precarious place, and households have been very frugal as a result:

Buffeted by high unemployment, heavy debt loads, falling home values and high food and gas prices, these shoppers have been whipped into a permanent state of consumer caution. They buy only what they need, avoid premium labels, clip coupons and scour sales.

This has created an environment where households are trying to stretch what they have and save on what they're going to make. Furthermore, there seems to be a cyclical spending habit based on when paychecks are distributed:

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Mike Duke told analysts in a recent conference call that paycheck-cycle shopping is more pronounced than ever, with shoppers stocking up shortly after getting paid, then moving to smaller product sizes toward the end of the month when they run short of money.

Companies have become more proactive in offering products that appeal to this frugal consumer:

Some are waiting longer to pass on higher costs, whether for food or cotton. Coca-Cola Co. and other companies have added new packages at small sizes and lower price tags. Some retailers are holding the line on hiring, even as they head into their busiest season of the year. Many stores are expanding their selection of cheaper private-label products and some are offering credit cards with across-the-board discounts. Layaway has made a comeback.

One of the few stores to have thrived in this time are the dollar stores:

Dollar stores sales boomed during the recession and moderated only somewhat as the economy appeared to improve. Now, renewed pressure on consumers are lifting their sales again. Dollar General Corp. raised its full-year sales guidance to between 4% and 6% from 3% to 5% when it reported second quarter earnings in late August.

It's frightening how household spending habits are shifting, but what's most frightening is what's going on with parents of newborns:

The volume of diapers sold in the U.S. slipped 1% in the four weeks ended Sept. 4 from a year earlier, extending a string of similar or steeper declines stretching back to August 2010, according to Consumer Edge Research, whose retail-sales tracking doesn't include Costco Wholesale Corp. or Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Dollar sales fell nearly 3%, indicating parents are both cutting back and trading down to cheaper private labels.

Yes, it appears that parents are cutting by on their diaper purchases. That's just nasty.

Perhaps as a result of this change in spending, we've seen an increase in diaper rash ointment:

Meantime, sales of diaper-rash ointment have increased 8% over the past year, according to market-research firm SymphonyIRI. Analysts and pediatricians say the higher sales likely reflect either less frequent changes or a shift to lower quality diapers.

I understand that diapers cost a lot of money and everyone is trying to get leaner wherever they can, but at what point is the health issue the most important thing? I think people should take the best care of themselves and their loved ones that they can so that they stay healthy and avoid burdensome medical expenses. We're moving into dangerous territory. It just speaks to how bad the economy is getting.

Part of this is on the Fed. While the Fed has insisted that inflation has not risen, oil and food prices have been high and that's been a burden on families. Additionally, we're approaching Winter, when gas prices will go up as families try to keep their houses warm. If this Winter is bad, we're going to have a lot of families in trouble. Inflation has been burdensome, and to not recognize that is ignoring a core economic measure.

In the meantime, what would help unburden these families? Lower taxes? Job growth? These families need something real to help them through these tough times. They're not getting it.

Is Rick Perry Done?

Is Rick Perry Done?

Over the last week, we've seen increased speculation and encouragement for New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, to enter the GOP race. We've also seen the emergence of Herman Cain after his win in the Florida Straw Poll. We also had this drop this week:
Once again, the poll numbers are in and Rick Perry has dropped:

Among announced candidates — without Christie or Palin in the race — Romney leads with 25 percent, which is identical to his support from a month ago. Perry and Cain are tied for second with 16 percent, numbers representing a 13-point drop for Perry and a 12-point rise for Cain since early September.

What may be worse is that his core support seems to be eroding:

The falloff for Perry against other announced candidates has been particularly steep among those aligned with the tea party movement. In early September, Perry had a 3-to-1 advantage over any other candidate among those “strongly” backing the tea party, but his supported has plummeted from 45 percent to 10 percent in this group.

Conservatives aren't happy with the Texas Governor either:

Among all conservatives, Perry’s support has been sliced in half, from 39 to 19 percent. Some of his decline may stem from shaky debate showings: A majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who have watched recent debates say the more they hear about Perry, the less they like him.

I pretty much said the same exact thing in a recent blog post. It's worth checking out this graphic that shows how fast Perry's support is finding its way to other candidates, mainly Herman Cain. However, it's probably most relevant to see how he compares to Mitt Romney, the current front runner:

Romney has big – 20-point – advantages over Perry on two important questions: experience and electability. When asked who has the better experience to be president, Romney wins 50 to 30 percent.

Perry's struggles are being documented by the media. Some have questioned the Drudge effect:

Drudge's editorial decisions replace Perry's message of solid, inspirational, conservatism with an inept, flagging candidate. And while Drudge doesn't exert the broad influence over the scattered media landscape that he did over a more concentrated media five or 10 years ago, he still wields immense power, particularly in shaping the narrative of the right. He has helped chip away at Perry's image to hundreds of thousands of conservative readers daily, just for starters.

Blogs definitely have a big say in shaping narrative, but Drudge has to be one of the biggest. Many people go to his site as a source to finding links to news articles. Sometimes people just read his headlines without reading the articles. It's definitely been a factor, but hasn't Perry just done poorly himself?

Christian Science concludes what we've already heard about Perry, he doesn't wear well:

What happened in mid-September? That’s when debate season got rolling. Whether voters watched the debates or not, they appear to have heard much about Perry’s poor performances. It is also possible that publicity about Perry’s description of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” has taken a toll on his support.

The hits keep coming.

My interest in Perry sputtered rapidly since he entered the race. His first speech was open, honest and spoke to the ideals that America should live up to. Unfortunately, he has shown that he might not have the qualities to be the President of the United States. We have already elected a great orator into office. We need someone who will get things done. It's not the flubs which have undone Perry, it's his ability to achieve. I think people have realized that his potential is much lower than initially expected and the voters are flocking to other candidates.

Rick Perry is done as far as I'm concerned, and I would like to see Herman Cain get more feature time in the debates. We deserve to see more of a candidate that actually has broad appeal through out the party.

The New Old iPhone?

So people were expecting the announcement of the new iPhone 5. However, Apple only came out with the iPhone 4S. It does still seem good though:

So now everyone has a chance to have a personal assistant? The hardware is much improved, but it's heavier. I'm sure people are disappointed that the iPhone wasn't released, but this is a much improved iPhone. The iPhone is now global, amongst other relevant and fantastic features.

This is clearly to give it more punch in its tussle with Android:

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc., in its first product unveiling since Steve Jobs resigned as chief executive officer, introduced a faster iPhone with voice features and a higher- resolution camera to help it vie with Google Inc.'s Android.

Let's talk about that camera:

The iPhone 4S, available Oct. 14, will have a camera with 60 percent more pixels and can handle high-definition video. The device also relies on an “intelligent antenna system” that's designed to improve call quality and works with both CDMA and GSM wireless standards. Users will have up to 8 hours of talk time on one charge.

Apple has high hopes for it:

“For many customers, the iPhone 4S will be the best still camera they've ever owned, the best video camera they've ever owned, and it's with them all the time,” said Phil Schiller, a senior vice president in charge of product marketing.

This should enable it to compete directly with Android:

At stake is leadership in the market for smartphones, which is projected to double by 2015, when 1 billion of the handsets will be sold, according to research firm IDC. While Apple is the single biggest smartphone maker, the Android coalition leads the market, accounting for 41.7 percent.

The iPhone always does well when it is first released. It has the benefit of having the "it" factor that Android lacks. While phones like the Droid Bionic seem to be pushing technological advancements, the iPhone continues to be the preferred phone of those looking for user experience. Now, with the new camera, it should attract those who have been moving to Android for phones like the Droid X which features a 8 megapixel.

Apple's stock may be down on the day, but I think the release of this new phone is setting up for another big quarter for the Cupertino company. It would be one thing if Apple was bringing nothing new to the table, but they are bring improved hardware and global capabilities. The Apple iPhone 4S will prove to be another hit.

Ford Gets It Done

Ford Motor Group has agreed to a contract with the UAW for four years. This is tremendous for both sides because labor issues are the last thing either side needs. It's a pretty big deal for the UAW:

The four-year contract generally holds the line on wages with no automatic hourly increases for most Ford workers in exchange for a promise to add new car and truck production at some of its more poorly utilized factories in the U.S. The expanded production could lead to the hiring of up to 12,000 union workers through 2015.

The UAW lost a lot of jobs as the automakers struggled. A lot of the cities that are heavily reliant on manufacturing saw a rise in unemployment during these times. The return of jobs to these factories should help bring that down, especially in Michigan. Michigan still is the center of the autoworld. The new deal is a sign of progress:

GM's four-year labor contract, ratified by union members last week, and the Ford accord show the restructured U.S. auto industry is now able to hold the line on labor costs to compete with its foreign rivals while adding thousands of jobs. GM said it will add up to 6,400 union jobs as part of its contract.

It's amazing how lean years have changed the stance of the UAW from being fiercely defensive against paycuts to looking to recoup jobs. It's actually refreshing. The health of the company is just as important as the financial packages that the workers. In fact, it ensures the future of the workers.

Now that the deal is done, Ford seems optimistic about their future. I can't say I am not. They have turned a profit on their own without the stigma of the Federal Government. Now that it has proven its health, it can afford to take lofty goals. I think Ford, of the American companies, is best positioned to take on its Asian competition.

Get Your Kindle Fire

Now that the Kindle Fire has officially been announced, we can stop speculating and start anticipating it. The Amazon Tablet will go on sale for $199 which prices it well below the iPad. In fact, you could buy two Kindle Fires and a Kindle Touch for the price of an iPad. The Kindle Fire has already had an impact on the tablet market as Blackberry lowered the price of its Playbook. In my last post, I suggested that Amazon was taking a loss to drive their content sales, and UBs agrees: Then you get to the actual product. With all the hoopla surrounding the Kindle Fire, the pricing suggests it's not going to be a direct competitor with the iPad. However, it appears that the Kindle Fire will tell us whether there is a tablet market outside the iPad:

If the sum of all is more than the value of the individual platform products, we should be seeing substantial interest in the Kindle Fire – more than in any other Android tablet to date. The Kindle Fire will deliver answers that no other Android tablet has done so far. Ultimately, I believe that the Kindle Fire will either confirm claims that there is a tablet market outside the iPad or silence most proponents of this market.

The 7 inch tablet could just be Amazon's initial entry into the market, to establish its presence. There are rumors that Amazon will come out with a 10 inch tablet following the initial release:

According to a Digitimes report, Amazon has tapped Foxconn to produce the larger model. China-based Foxconn is also responsible for manufacturing the bulk of Apple’s iPad. Another Chinese firm, Quanta, however, is manufacturing the 7-inch Kindle Fire. Quanta is also the manufacturer of the BlackBerry PlayBook, although it recently announced that it was cutting production lines for RIM’s tablet, dismissing 1,000 employees from its Taiwan factory.

Regardless, the Kindle Fire seems to already have stirred excitement amongst the masses. Amazon is already cleaning up:

eDataSource, a leading provider of online competitive intelligence, estimates that sales of Amazon's new Kindle Fire reached 95,000 units during the first day that the device was made available through Amazon's website.

The question is why will this be a hit as opposed to other Android tablets. Amazon has let it be known what their tablet is about:

The Kindle Fire has a very smooth purchase-and-use path. Boot, choose from a curated list of options, buy something, enjoy. It's different enough from the successful iPad in size, usage and price that this holiday season may finally see us go from a one-tablet nation to a two-tablet zone. Anyone else trying to break through with a tablet should take a lesson from Amazon here. Tell us what it's for.

The Kindle Fire appears like it will have a better user experience than the other Android tablets because its users will know what to expect when they use it. Apple does a great job of catering first to the user then working on the product that caters to those needs. The Kindle Fire could be the product that combines the great hardware of Android with a positive user experience.

Christie Leaves Us Waiting

Although Chris Christie did not discuss a potential bid for the Republican nomination for President, it did not stop people from asking him:
The guy appears to be very charismatic and you can see why so many people want him to run for President. I wholeheartedly agree with him that if you are going to run for President, you have to be up for it. It's a taxing job and you heart has to be in it.

That hasn't stopped important figures from urging him into the race:

The renewed consideration about a White House run came after prodding this week from some Republicans he idolizes, including former First Lady Nancy Reagan, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and former President George W. Bush, sources said.

The people want him in the race and other leaders want him in the race, what's holding him back? Even Romney says it would be fun to have Christie in the race:

"Chris is a great friend, a great guy, a colorful character," the former Massachusetts governor said Wednesday at a campaign event in Manchester, N.H. "Who knows? Maybe he'll get in. I think it'd be fun if he got in."I

That sounds wrong coming from a potential competitor right? May be it's more a sign of the weakness of the current crop of candidates. The voters seem undecided. Romney, who is the current favorite, has not won any of the straw polls thus far. Rick Perry, the other frontrunner, hasn't won either. There is a lot of indecision between the Republicans, and that's because one candidate hasn't risen above the others. The GOP is hoping so:
An old Northeast Republican Moderate eh? I like the sounds of that, but don't we already have one of those? What makes Christie different from Mitt Romney? I don't know.

The other main question is whether it's too late. He still has some time:

Late October appears to be the latest someone could get in, gear up, and run in the early states, given all the requirements and needs of a campaign.

It would be best if he announced sooner rather than later to meet all the deadlines. Campaigning is another story.

Ultimately, it's about who raises fervor within the party and rejuvenates and unites a divided party. It appears that Christie could be that guy. The best candidate, Mitt Romney, has never garnered enough enthusiasm. Interest in Perry cooled down just as fast as it heated up. The rest of the candidates don't seem to be legitimate contenders. Christie will either win the race or make it abundantly clear who should win the race.

Healthcare Setback?

If you haven't heard, Obama's healthcare reform law has been appealed to the Supreme Court:

WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The Obama administration on Wednesday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to back the centerpiece of Barack Obama's sweeping healthcare overhaul -- the requirement that all Americans have health insurance.

The appeal was largely expected as a high court ruling against the law could be a fatal blow to the president's signature domestic policy achievement and could have major implications for his re-election bid.

The case is important because healthcare reform has been on of the corner stones of Obama's presidency. Additionally, the ruling will come down only a few months before what should be a heated reelection campaign for the President. Obama supporters are confident:

“We believe that a prompt resolution of the constitutionality and severability of the individual mandate is in the best interest of individuals, employers, states, and the federal government. We are confident in the merits of our legal arguments, and we look forward to presenting them to the Supreme Court.”

What may be more concerning than the constitutionality of the law at this moment, is the rising costs of healthcare:

Even a slow economy can't stop healthcare costs from rising. A new report by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research & Educational Trust shows that the cost of employer-provided insurance rose 9% this year — even as workers and their families were cutting back on trips to the doctor's office — and has more than doubled over the last decade.

Costs are growing out of control since Obamacare was passed:

The report was based on interviews with more than 2,000 employers between January and May. Researchers found that premiums rose three times faster from 2010 to 2011 than they had the previous year, pushing the average cost of policies for single workers to $5,429 and for families to $15,073.

The Republicans are having a field day:

“As this survey shows, the president’s promise that his partisan health law would lower costs was just empty rhetoric,” Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah), the top Republican on the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement. “The fact is employers aren’t hiring, in large part, because they have to spend more and more money on health insurance.”

And Paul Ryan is always lurking with a fiscally responsible plan:

“Giving patients and consumers control over healthcare resources would make all Americans less dependent on big business and big government for our health security; give us more control over the care we get; and force health care providers to compete for our business,” Ryan said.

Until there is a ruling on this, healthcare will continue to be a hotly contested issue. In addition, all the Republican presidential candidates have said that if they are elected, they will repeal the law. The shelf law for Obamacare might not be that long anyway.

On a more concerning note, at the moment, it appears that healthcare reform may not reduce the cost of healthcare, thus making the law expensive. This will make it anti-jobs because company growth will be restrained by these costs. Furthermore, with our national debt crisis, it is important that the legislation we pass has a positive effect on our economy. I'm not convinced that this is the right move for that.

The Hermanator Experience

I've been meaning to write about Herman Cain for a while. As a black Republican businessman, he seemed out of place in the Republican Presidential race, but he always spoke with precision and confidence. Even before his Florida straw poll victory, I thought he was making a strong run as a potential Vice Presidential candidate. Needless to say, I learn more about an issue or a person when I write about them and I have to do the research.

So let's start off with a little background; unlike the rest of the candidates, Herman Cain has no experience in political position. He's a career businessman:

Cain, 65, grew up in Georgia and graduated from Morehouse College. He became a turnaround artist, rescuing the Burger King outlets of Philadelphia. From there, he went to Omaha, where in 1986 he took over and stabilized Godfather’s Pizza with clever advertising and aggressive downsizing.

By the early 1990s, Cain had started to transition out of day-to-day management at Godfathers and delve into politics. In 1992, he was appointed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In 1994, he became head of the National Restaurant Association, a post he held for five years.

He's a turnaround specialist, something he's highlighted in all the debates. The US is in need of a turn around, and he feels he's the best man for the job. This isn't the first time he's run for office. He ran for President in 2000 and he ran for Senate in 2004. Despite those failures, he left an impression:

But despite his lack of political success, he managed to attract the notice of a radio executive with his rich, booming voice. His campaign manager became his producer. He trademarked the expression “The Hermanator Experience.”

The two main talking points of his campaign have been the 9-9-9 tax plan he wants to institute and the Chilean social security model he wants to implement.

The 9-9-9 plan will be hard on the lower and middle classes (check out the article in the side bar, worth a full read):

Most economists agree that a national sales tax would raise the relative tax burden on low- and middle-income earning taxpayers. "The main reason is that low- and middle-income households consume more of their income than high-income households do," said William Gale, senior fellow for economic studies at the Brookings Institution. "Another way of saying that is high-income households save more of their income than low-income households do."

Basically, if all people consume the same amount of taxable goods and services, if you have a lower income, whatever is taxed is going to be a higher percentage of income.

His whole system will make the lower classes pay more while the upper classes pay less. Now, I've already said that taxes need to be lower for the US to be competitive, but I don't think it makes sense to increase taxes on people who already are having trouble making ends meet. Yes, you want a society that encourages economic advancement, but you also need a minimum standard of living across the board. This is the United States where we tout our economic opportunity and high standards of living. Instituting a national sales tax is a straightforward attack on the lower classes.

One of the things that I've been interested in is the viability of the Chilean Model:

But while the reform's supporters argue it has been a major success story, officials both inside and outside Chile now increasingly question whether the high costs and modest investment returns have doomed Piñera's original promise: a decent retirement income for workers at a savings for the government.

Social Security has come under fire because of the uncertainty surrounding its future. The government has misappropriated funds, so this would be another way of protecting individuals. The problem is that it doesn't provide enough income for the retired:

A recent report by the Chilean government brought more grim news, forecasting that as many as half of all workers won't be able to save enough to receive the minimum pension when they retire—even after paying into their accounts for 30 years—and will therefore rely on government subsidies. More than 17 percent of Chile's retirees now continue working because they can't afford to live on their pensions, according to that study, and another 7 percent want to work, but can't find jobs.

Despite this, the model has been praised and used as the basis of models in other countries. I think it is important that someone takes a greater look into this and challenges Cain in the next debate. He can't tout a program that doesn't get real results. Praise is one thing, results is the real thing.

There are further mathematical challenges with the program:

Here’s the problem: To finance benefits at promised levels for those 55 or older, we would need to continue to collect payroll taxes from today’s working-age population. However, we would also propose to divert a significant share of those payroll tax into personal accounts. In effect, we would be trying to spend the same dollar twice, and we would do it trillions of times.

This doesn't seem like a worthy endeavor considering our country's tricky financial situation.

One thing is for certain, he is very confident:
And he'll need it because his Florida win has brought him under fire as people begin to think whether he is a viable candidate for Presidency or not. It's uncertain whether his tax plan will work:

"I don't understand how the 9-9-9 plan -- which includes both a national sales tax and an income tax while purporting to repeal the 16th Amendment at some point -- can be taken seriously by anyone who feels we are already overtaxed," said Andrew Nappi, director of the Florida 10th Amendment Center.

And has it been vetted:

Zimmermann, a Romney supporter, said, "I don't know anyone who has vetted the 9-9-9 proposal and confirmed it as a viable plan."

There are other things threatening his campaign:

Top aides in Iowa and New Hampshire quit earlier this year, saying Cain wasn’t taking the early states seriously. One former staffer recently alleged that staff members tried to cover up the role of a gay campaign adviser. He refuses to name the economic advisers who helped come up with his plan. In May, Cain said he couldn’t talk about foreign policy until elected.

That makes me believe that he hasn't taken himself seriously up to this point. If he really wants to make a run for this, he will aim for the transparency necessary to be a viable candidate. Until then, Herman Cain will be a bump in the road for the front runners. You cannot ignore potential skeletons in your closet and run for president. You will have people make you reveal that information as you rise a legitimate candidate. You should do your best to be prepared.

Now that Cain has one Florida, he best be prepared. He's been shooting for the stars; now the stars will be shooting back.

Amazon Comin' Yo

So Amazon has decided to unveil a new tablet:

(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), which revolutionized reading with its Kindle e-reader, is expected to unveil a tablet computer next week that analysts say will seriously challenge Apple's (AAPL.O) market dominating iPad.

Indeed, the big question is whether it will challenge Apple's iPad. The iPad has been hugely successful and Apple is selling every tablet that they can make. Everyone wants to know if Amazon's tablet, which will reportedly be called the Kindle Fire, will be a threat to the iPad:

Ultimately, it’s a question of how much Amazon has in common with Apple. If they have enough of the same DNA, that fact may separate the color Kindle apart from every other Android tablet on the market — and give Cupertino a run for its money.

The big deal with Apple has been their execution in delivering their products and for the iPad, it's been with Apps:

Today, there are almost half a million iPhone and iPod apps. In the space of less than two years, there are almost 100,000 iPad apps. I don’t know exactly how many Android tablet apps there are, but I do know that any time I’ve used an Android tablet, I have a heck of a time finding decent Android tablet apps (there are thousands of excellent Android phone apps). Tablet developers are clearly building their iPad versions first and, given the 25 millions iPads already sold, likely achieving their greatest success on the iOS platform.

Mashable believes that Amazon has a similar built in ecosystem that'll enable the Kindle Fire to thrive:

Amazon has one big advantage over virtually every other Android Tablet manufacturer: it understand user interfaces. No other competitor, aside from Apple, runs such an active and varied website for consumers. The Seattle-based retailer has been perfecting Amazon.com’s interface for 16 years. When Amazon was just books, it was pretty straightforward — but as the company added other product categories, it struggled to find an rational interface metaphor. Even so, Amazon was the acknowledged leader in the space. When it introduced tabs, all other online retail sites tried them as well.

Then there's pricing:

But I doubt Amazon cares if it takes a small loss on the tablets. They’ll be putting a fully functional, Internet and media-ready portal to all of its products in the hands of millions of existing customers. (How many people do you know who do not have an Amazon account?)

Amazon has features like Amazon Prime and the Amazon App Store which can give it a pricing advantage over the iPad, while still being a profitable entity for the company.

PC World says Amazon needs to get this right:

The hat trick with an Amazon tablet will lie not with whether Amazon can offer a device that integrates its storefront and services—that's an easy bet, and a foregone conclusion given its history with Kindle e-readers. The real question is whether the company can produce a tablet with an interface that's natural, visually pleasing, and functionally spot-on for how it will be used by consumers.

The Tablet market isn't easy to break into:

If, with this tablet, Amazon can finally make a product that's a standout star with its interface and usability, the tablet has legitimate potential to be a threat to Apple's iPad. But if the company doesn't nail the interface, it runs the risk of offering yet another ho-hum tablet in a crowded landscape, albeit a ho-hum tablet with, presumably, a better-integrated media consumption and e-book experience than most. One can hope.

Amazon is late to the Tablet party, but only Apple is really having fun in the party. Other companies have made attempt to compete with the Cupertino giant, but have come up short. The iPad is a jack of all trades, and it has the support of Apple's application Arsenal. Amazon seems to be the one company that can compete with Apple on the application front, with its App Store, but the fact is the tablet, itself, has to be good in order to compete.

Amazon is taking a risk by entering the tablet market, but if they get it right, it could be a huge win for the company.