The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow. I've been watching the Kentucky Derby for probably 10 years now. Every single year, I have spent more time evaluating the horses. Last year was the first time I actually handicapped the race. My picks looked good until Mine That Bird, a 50-1 long shot, pipped Pioneer of the Nile. I did not want the same thing happening again. I have poured hours into watching the competitors of the Derby. I have poured hours into studying their strengths, weaknesses, their kryptonite.
It's interesting because a lot of these horses have gone head to head in the past. For example, Lookin At Lucky and Nobles Promise have gone head to head many times, with the former coming on top pretty much every time. Sidney's Candy has owned a lot of horses as well. That's why they're the two favorites. They also have the two most controversial starting positions. I have strong concerns for Lookin At Lucky starting at the poll. When he was beaten by Sidney's Candy at the Santa Anita Derby, he was along the rail and cut off. He never recovered, placing only 3rd. He is a very good horse though, especially considering he's always placed. Sidney's Candy has won every race except for his first race. These two are the horses I like the most.
Super Saver appears to be the betting favorite, but I see him more as a pace setter that will challenge for a place. I think he lacks the breakaway speed on the home stretch to win the Derby. A few pacy horses that I like, but don't think will win are Conveyance, Jackson Bend, and Mission Impazible. These are all horses with dosage index numbers above 4. No horse with a rating above 4 has won the Derby since 1929. I also was pretty quick to write off the turf horses like Make Music for Me and Paddy O'Prado. The filly, Devil May Care, also should not compete, especially considering she has not faced off against male horses before.
Here's my opinion of all the horses:
Lookin At Lucky - A very good horse, he owns Nobles Promise and Make Music For Me - Contender
Ice Box - Lack breakaway speed - Pretender
Nobles Promise - Owned by Lookin At Lucky, don't expect this to be any different - Pretender
Super Saver - Pace setter? Will challenge for a place - Contender
Line of David - Won Arkansas Derby by a head, but is untested. He has fight. - Unproven
Stately Victor - Many mediocre starts - No
American Lion - Around the lead, but lacks breakaway speed - Pretender
Deans Kitten - Mediocre horse - No
Make Music For Me - I don't like turf horses - No
Paddy O'Prado - See above - No
Devil May Care - Filly - No
Conveyance - Pace setter, might be better suited for Pimlico - No
Jackson Bend - Dosage over 4 - No
Mission Impazible - Dosage over 4 - No
Discreetly Mine - Overlooked? - Dark horse
Awesome Act - I think one of the first things I wrote was I don't like Awesome Act - No
Dublin - Has not won a race in a while - No
Backtalk - Could struggle with a field of this size, but might be overlooked - Dark horse
Homeboykris - Has not performed when challenged - No
Sidney's Candy - I think SC is the best horse in this race - Contender
Keep an eye on which jockey is the most successful tomorrow.
I like Sidney's Candy, Lookin at Lucky, and Super Saver as my contenders. I have Backtalk and Discreetly Mine as my dark horses. I think most of all though, I will like Mint Juleps.
Obama in the morning, Derby in the afternoon? Should be a great Saturday.
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