Wednesday, October 5, 2011

We'll Miss You, Steve

I wrote a longer piece, related to his career, when he resigned as the CEO of Apple earlier this year, but I wanted to say something more personal about what Steve Jobs meant to me. I've always had Apple products in my life. My family's first computer was an Apple Macintosh. My first computer was an Apple iMac. I've had a couple iPod, and I currently have a Mac Book. Apple products have been around me for as long as I know.

More recently, Steve Jobs has been an inspiration. I looked up to him. It wasn't just that he brought such great products to the market; it was that he saw the need. He made millions of lives better. He always looked forward. He was the pace setter for the technology sector, and as a CEO. he was the envy of every other company.

There are many people who can run a company. It takes something else to direct and lead a company. Steve Jobs was an innovator, a leader, a visionary. He will be sorely missed and remember by many. It is easy to see why.

Rest in Peace, Steve. The World will miss you.

That Used To Be Us

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Thomas Friedman
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogThe Daily Show on Facebook
Thomas Friedman talks to Jon Stewart about how America has begun to lag behind the way it used to be in terms of the expectations and the standard of living that a normal citizen has. It's a very interesting interview, and I'm sure it's an interesting book.

I thought this was worth sharing because I've talked a lot about the education gap in this country and the need to train people to work in the evolving economy.

Greek Protests


With the Greek debt crisis, the Greek government has been under pressure to make cuts so that the road to recovery is a much more attainable path. They've already been bailed out a couple times by the European Central Bank and cannot afford to be bailed out again. The path that the Greek government has chosen is to make job cuts, and the people have protested:
Flights were grounded, schools shut and government offices closed in Greece's first nationwide walkout in months. Labour leaders call it the start of a campaign to derail emergency austerity steps launched last month by a government that has already imposed two years of tax hikes and wage cuts.
These people have already made sacrifices, but there is definitely a priority of austerity. The Greek government needs to start moving jobs back to the private sector. By employing so many people, they put a heavy burden on their tax base. Now, the people it promised to help are suffering as a result. Yes, it appears the next few years will be lean for Greece, but it will be better for the long run. However, this seems to be heading towards anarchy:
"We want this government out. They deceived us. They promised to tax the rich and help the poor, but they didn't," said Sotiris Pelekanos, 39, an engineer and one of the striking workers gathered in central Athens. "I don't care if we go bankrupt. We are already bankrupt."
The government really has no idea what it's doing:
"The government is panicking and has no strategy," said Thessaloniki port unionist Fani Gourgouri. "These measures are only extending poverty. We'd be willing to shoulder the cost and say 'yes' to austerity if they proceeded with reforms that would create jobs instead of cutting them."
The problem is that Greece has goals it needs to achieve:
The government will aim to achieve a 2012 deficit of 14.65 billion euro ($19.51 billion) or 6.8% of GDP, by combining 2011 and 2012 goals. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos believes this will give Greece a primary surplus next year of 3.2 billion euros ($4.2 billion).
If Greece makes cuts but continues with its over-reliance on government for jobs and other provisions, it will have the same problems in the future. The only way to ensure the future is to make a solid investment in growing the private sector. I don't think they can just make the switch overnight. They can't alienate the people either. The government needs to maintain its credibility, something that's already running thin. Greece has some tough choices to make. The people hare clearly making their voices heard.

Frugal Families: A Sign of a Slow Economy

I keep talking about how hard times are on the business side in terms of jobs and economic growth, but it's also become tough for families to spend on essential goods. The economic slowdown has hurt household incomes through lost jobs or reduce income through inflation. The purchasing power of a household is in a very precarious place, and households have been very frugal as a result:
Buffeted by high unemployment, heavy debt loads, falling home values and high food and gas prices, these shoppers have been whipped into a permanent state of consumer caution. They buy only what they need, avoid premium labels, clip coupons and scour sales.
This has created an environment where households are trying to stretch what they have and save on what they're going to make. Furthermore, there seems to be a cyclical spending habit based on when paychecks are distributed:
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Mike Duke told analysts in a recent conference call that paycheck-cycle shopping is more pronounced than ever, with shoppers stocking up shortly after getting paid, then moving to smaller product sizes toward the end of the month when they run short of money.
Companies have become more proactive in offering products that appeal to this frugal consumer:
Some are waiting longer to pass on higher costs, whether for food or cotton. Coca-Cola Co. and other companies have added new packages at small sizes and lower price tags. Some retailers are holding the line on hiring, even as they head into their busiest season of the year. Many stores are expanding their selection of cheaper private-label products and some are offering credit cards with across-the-board discounts. Layaway has made a comeback.
One of the few stores to have thrived in this time are the dollar stores:
Dollar stores sales boomed during the recession and moderated only somewhat as the economy appeared to improve. Now, renewed pressure on consumers are lifting their sales again. Dollar General Corp. raised its full-year sales guidance to between 4% and 6% from 3% to 5% when it reported second quarter earnings in late August.
It's frightening how household spending habits are shifting, but what's most frightening is what's going on with parents of newborns:
The volume of diapers sold in the U.S. slipped 1% in the four weeks ended Sept. 4 from a year earlier, extending a string of similar or steeper declines stretching back to August 2010, according to Consumer Edge Research, whose retail-sales tracking doesn't include Costco Wholesale Corp. or Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Dollar sales fell nearly 3%, indicating parents are both cutting back and trading down to cheaper private labels.
Yes, it appears that parents are cutting by on their diaper purchases. That's just nasty.

Perhaps as a result of this change in spending, we've seen an increase in diaper rash ointment:
Meantime, sales of diaper-rash ointment have increased 8% over the past year, according to market-research firm SymphonyIRI. Analysts and pediatricians say the higher sales likely reflect either less frequent changes or a shift to lower quality diapers.
I understand that diapers cost a lot of money and everyone is trying to get leaner wherever they can, but at what point is the health issue the most important thing? I think people should take the best care of themselves and their loved ones that they can so that they stay healthy and avoid burdensome medical expenses. We're moving into dangerous territory. It just speaks to how bad the economy is getting.

Part of this is on the Fed. While the Fed has insisted that inflation has not risen, oil and food prices have been high and that's been a burden on families. Additionally, we're approaching Winter, when gas prices will go up as families try to keep their houses warm. If this Winter is bad, we're going to have a lot of families in trouble. Inflation has been burdensome, and to not recognize that is ignoring a core economic measure.

In the meantime, what would help unburden these families? Lower taxes? Job growth? These families need something real to help them through these tough times. They're not getting it.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Is Rick Perry Done?

Is Rick Perry Done?

Over the last week, we've seen increased speculation and encouragement for New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, to enter the GOP race. We've also seen the emergence of Herman Cain after his win in the Florida Straw Poll. We also had this drop this week:
Once again, the poll numbers are in and Rick Perry has dropped:
Among announced candidates — without Christie or Palin in the race — Romney leads with 25 percent, which is identical to his support from a month ago. Perry and Cain are tied for second with 16 percent, numbers representing a 13-point drop for Perry and a 12-point rise for Cain since early September.
What may be worse is that his core support seems to be eroding:
The falloff for Perry against other announced candidates has been particularly steep among those aligned with the tea party movement. In early September, Perry had a 3-to-1 advantage over any other candidate among those “strongly” backing the tea party, but his supported has plummeted from 45 percent to 10 percent in this group.
Conservatives aren't happy with the Texas Governor either:
Among all conservatives, Perry’s support has been sliced in half, from 39 to 19 percent. Some of his decline may stem from shaky debate showings: A majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who have watched recent debates say the more they hear about Perry, the less they like him.
I pretty much said the same exact thing in a recent blog post. It's worth checking out this graphic that shows how fast Perry's support is finding its way to other candidates, mainly Herman Cain. However, it's probably most relevant to see how he compares to Mitt Romney, the current front runner:
Romney has big – 20-point – advantages over Perry on two important questions: experience and electability. When asked who has the better experience to be president, Romney wins 50 to 30 percent.
Perry's struggles are being documented by the media. Some have questioned the Drudge effect:
Drudge's editorial decisions replace Perry's message of solid, inspirational, conservatism with an inept, flagging candidate. And while Drudge doesn't exert the broad influence over the scattered media landscape that he did over a more concentrated media five or 10 years ago, he still wields immense power, particularly in shaping the narrative of the right. He has helped chip away at Perry's image to hundreds of thousands of conservative readers daily, just for starters.
Blogs definitely have a big say in shaping narrative, but Drudge has to be one of the biggest. Many people go to his site as a source to finding links to news articles. Sometimes people just read his headlines without reading the articles. It's definitely been a factor, but hasn't Perry just done poorly himself?

Christian Science concludes what we've already heard about Perry, he doesn't wear well:
What happened in mid-September? That’s when debate season got rolling. Whether voters watched the debates or not, they appear to have heard much about Perry’s poor performances. It is also possible that publicity about Perry’s description of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” has taken a toll on his support.
The hits keep coming.

My interest in Perry sputtered rapidly since he entered the race. His first speech was open, honest and spoke to the ideals that America should live up to. Unfortunately, he has shown that he might not have the qualities to be the President of the United States. We have already elected a great orator into office. We need someone who will get things done. It's not the flubs which have undone Perry, it's his ability to achieve. I think people have realized that his potential is much lower than initially expected and the voters are flocking to other candidates.

Rick Perry is done as far as I'm concerned, and I would like to see Herman Cain get more feature time in the debates. We deserve to see more of a candidate that actually has broad appeal through out the party.

The New Old iPhone?



So people were expecting the announcement of the new iPhone 5. However, Apple only came out with the iPhone 4S. It does still seem good though:

So now everyone has a chance to have a personal assistant? The hardware is much improved, but it's heavier. I'm sure people are disappointed that the iPhone wasn't released, but this is a much improved iPhone. The iPhone is now global, amongst other relevant and fantastic features.

This is clearly to give it more punch in its tussle with Android:
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc., in its first product unveiling since Steve Jobs resigned as chief executive officer, introduced a faster iPhone with voice features and a higher- resolution camera to help it vie with Google Inc.'s Android.
Let's talk about that camera:
The iPhone 4S, available Oct. 14, will have a camera with 60 percent more pixels and can handle high-definition video. The device also relies on an “intelligent antenna system” that's designed to improve call quality and works with both CDMA and GSM wireless standards. Users will have up to 8 hours of talk time on one charge.
Apple has high hopes for it:
“For many customers, the iPhone 4S will be the best still camera they've ever owned, the best video camera they've ever owned, and it's with them all the time,” said Phil Schiller, a senior vice president in charge of product marketing.
This should enable it to compete directly with Android:
At stake is leadership in the market for smartphones, which is projected to double by 2015, when 1 billion of the handsets will be sold, according to research firm IDC. While Apple is the single biggest smartphone maker, the Android coalition leads the market, accounting for 41.7 percent.
The iPhone always does well when it is first released. It has the benefit of having the "it" factor that Android lacks. While phones like the Droid Bionic seem to be pushing technological advancements, the iPhone continues to be the preferred phone of those looking for user experience. Now, with the new camera, it should attract those who have been moving to Android for phones like the Droid X which features a 8 megapixel.

Apple's stock may be down on the day, but I think the release of this new phone is setting up for another big quarter for the Cupertino company. It would be one thing if Apple was bringing nothing new to the table, but they are bring improved hardware and global capabilities. The Apple iPhone 4S will prove to be another hit.

Ford Gets It Done


Ford Motor Group has agreed to a contract with the UAW for four years. This is tremendous for both sides because labor issues are the last thing either side needs. It's a pretty big deal for the UAW:
The four-year contract generally holds the line on wages with no automatic hourly increases for most Ford workers in exchange for a promise to add new car and truck production at some of its more poorly utilized factories in the U.S. The expanded production could lead to the hiring of up to 12,000 union workers through 2015.
The UAW lost a lot of jobs as the automakers struggled. A lot of the cities that are heavily reliant on manufacturing saw a rise in unemployment during these times. The return of jobs to these factories should help bring that down, especially in Michigan. Michigan still is the center of the autoworld. The new deal is a sign of progress:
GM's four-year labor contract, ratified by union members last week, and the Ford accord show the restructured U.S. auto industry is now able to hold the line on labor costs to compete with its foreign rivals while adding thousands of jobs. GM said it will add up to 6,400 union jobs as part of its contract.
It's amazing how lean years have changed the stance of the UAW from being fiercely defensive against paycuts to looking to recoup jobs. It's actually refreshing. The health of the company is just as important as the financial packages that the workers. In fact, it ensures the future of the workers.

Now that the deal is done, Ford seems optimistic about their future. I can't say I am not. They have turned a profit on their own without the stigma of the Federal Government. Now that it has proven its health, it can afford to take lofty goals. I think Ford, of the American companies, is best positioned to take on its Asian competition.